My 9/11 Odds-- Jan 2005
Chances: LIHOP, HIHOP, MIHOP
Nothing in this world is for certain, of course, and thus I cannot say I am 100% convinced of anything about 9/11. But, there are many aspects of 9/11 of which I am fairly confident than other aspects. The following are my current chances for various theories and stories about 9/11:
1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 99%
2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%
3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 50%
4) All 19 of the hijackers named by the FBI were really on the four hijacked flights: 1%
5) The hijackings occurred according to the official story-- by force with small knives, boxcutters, mace, pepper spray and fake bombs: 10%
6) The hijackers actually piloted the planes into the WTC and Pentagon: 10%
7) There was some sort of plane switch, where the original hijacked planes landed and other drone planes took over the flight path and then crashed into the WTC and Pentagon: 50%
8) The hijackings took place as part of a pre-arranged drill: 50%
9) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 25%
10) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 50%
11) There were extra explosives planted at the WTC that helped bring down the towers: 50%
12) The Pentagon security camera video was altered: 99%
13) Extra explosives were planted at the Pentagon: 50%
14) Dick Cheney was intimately involved in the 9/11 attacks: 50%
15) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%
16) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 90%
17) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes and were a massive deception perpetrated by the government: 1%
18) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%
19) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the airlines: 100%
20) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the media: 90%
Thus, in terms of overall scenarios, this gives an extremely high likelihood for Let It Happen on Purpose (LIHOP) and for Help It Happen on Purpose (HIHOP). The odds for Make It Happen On Purpose (MIHOP) are roughly 50-50.
BUT-- the problem I have had with LIHOP for some time now is the unpredictability. It's hard to see that the government would not have any control over what buildings were hit-- it's simply too risky. Thus, in a sense, you have an all-or-none option-- where either the attacks are MIHOP all the way OR the official story where the government really tried to do everythng it could to prevent the attacks but was incompetent in stopping the attacks. But since there clearly was significant foreknowledge, this swings the pendulum to MIHOP.
This is why, despite the seeming improbability of it and the dark conspiracy theory nature of it, I have leaned towards MIHOP.
Nothing in this world is for certain, of course, and thus I cannot say I am 100% convinced of anything about 9/11. But, there are many aspects of 9/11 of which I am fairly confident than other aspects. The following are my current chances for various theories and stories about 9/11:
1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 99%
2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%
3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 50%
4) All 19 of the hijackers named by the FBI were really on the four hijacked flights: 1%
5) The hijackings occurred according to the official story-- by force with small knives, boxcutters, mace, pepper spray and fake bombs: 10%
6) The hijackers actually piloted the planes into the WTC and Pentagon: 10%
7) There was some sort of plane switch, where the original hijacked planes landed and other drone planes took over the flight path and then crashed into the WTC and Pentagon: 50%
8) The hijackings took place as part of a pre-arranged drill: 50%
9) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 25%
10) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 50%
11) There were extra explosives planted at the WTC that helped bring down the towers: 50%
12) The Pentagon security camera video was altered: 99%
13) Extra explosives were planted at the Pentagon: 50%
14) Dick Cheney was intimately involved in the 9/11 attacks: 50%
15) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%
16) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 90%
17) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes and were a massive deception perpetrated by the government: 1%
18) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%
19) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the airlines: 100%
20) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the media: 90%
Thus, in terms of overall scenarios, this gives an extremely high likelihood for Let It Happen on Purpose (LIHOP) and for Help It Happen on Purpose (HIHOP). The odds for Make It Happen On Purpose (MIHOP) are roughly 50-50.
BUT-- the problem I have had with LIHOP for some time now is the unpredictability. It's hard to see that the government would not have any control over what buildings were hit-- it's simply too risky. Thus, in a sense, you have an all-or-none option-- where either the attacks are MIHOP all the way OR the official story where the government really tried to do everythng it could to prevent the attacks but was incompetent in stopping the attacks. But since there clearly was significant foreknowledge, this swings the pendulum to MIHOP.
This is why, despite the seeming improbability of it and the dark conspiracy theory nature of it, I have leaned towards MIHOP.
posted by spooked at 8:25 PM
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