February 2008 Odds

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved, as I take in new evidence and new ideas and analyze new evidence. The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in terms of probability (I define "Beyond any reasonable doubt" as odds of 10,000 to 1 or higher):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 1,000 to 1

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

5) No aircraft hit the Pentagon at all: 10 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives destroyed the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

7) Nuclear weapons were involved in the destruction of the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 1,000 to 1

9) UA93 did not crash in Shanksville: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 1,000 to 1

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: 1 to 1 (lack of real hijacked planes would have been more of a factor)

15) The four 9/11 "crashes" did not involve any conventional planes (planes were used indirectly as decoys): 10,000 to 1

16) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

17) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"


Interestingly, I have clearly firmed up on many of these key points in the last 8 months-- going to "Beyond any reasonable doubt" in many places.

July 2007

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved, as I take in new evidence and new ideas and analyze new evidence. The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in betting terms (and yes, I would bet real money on these if it were possible):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 1,000 to 1

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 1,000 to 1

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 1,000 to 1

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: 1,000 to 1

5) No conventional plane hit the Pentagon: 100 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives including nuclear weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 1,000 to 1

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 1,000 to 1

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 100 to 1

9) UA93 did not crash in Shanksville: 1,000 to 1

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 500 to 1

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 1,000 to 1

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 10,000 to 1

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: 50:50 (lack of real hijacked planes may have been more of a factor)

15) The direct 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes: 100 to 1 (planes were probably used indirectly)

16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery: 100 to 1

17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 1,000 to 1

18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 1,000 to 1


Interestingly, I have clearly firmed up on many of these key points in the last 8 months-- going from 100 to 1 to 1,000 to 1 in many places.

November 2006

9/11 ODDS

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, contrary to what some people seem to think, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved, as I take in new evidence and/or analyze new evidence.

The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in betting terms (and yes, I would bet real money on these if it were possible):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 1,000 to 1

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 100 to 1

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 100 to 1

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: 100 to 1

5) No conventional plane hit the Pentagon: 50 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives and outside means such as exotic weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 100 to 1

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 100 to 1

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 50 to 1

9) no conventional plane crashed in Shanksville: 100 to 1

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 100 to 1

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2 (assuming fllight 175 was a Boeing 767): 1,000 to 1

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 1,000 to 1

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: 1 to 1 (confusing since it's not clear what kind of planes there were that could have been intercepted)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes: 10 to 1

16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery: 1 to 1

17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100 to 1

18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 100 to 1

Odds for October 2006

Very little in this world is for certain, of course, and it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened evolve, as I take in new evidence.

The following are my current updated chances for various explanations about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds or changed the wording for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 99%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 1%

5) A conventional Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 1%

6) Pre-planted explosives and outside means such as exotic weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 99% (added in "exotic weaponry")

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 99%

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 50% (this item is new; removed bombs at Pentagon)

9) no conventional plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 98%

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 98%

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 99%

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 50% (down slightly)

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 50% (upgraded significantly; I'm not sure about this one)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes and were perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 98% (added in "conventional" before "planes" because I think this is more appropriate)

16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery; this was perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 30%

17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100% (removed "large" from before "cover-up"; added in "disinfo campaign")

18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99% (removed "large" from before "cover-up")

9/11 Odds, August 2006

Very little in this world is for certain, of course, and it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. But there are parts of 9/11 of which I am more confident about what I think happened than other aspects.

The following are my current updated chances for various theories and stories about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 90%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 2%

5) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 2%

6) There were pre-planted explosives at the WTC twin towers that caused the total collapses of the buildings: 99%

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition: 99%

8) Explosives were planted at the Pentagon to mimic a plane crash: 90%

9) no plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 95%

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 95%

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 100%

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 5% (I don't think there were real hijacked planes for NORAD to go after)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes hitting buildings and were a massive deception perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 90%

16) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%

17) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99%

My 9/11 Odds-- April 2006

To repeat: nothing in this world is for certain, of course, and thus I cannot say I am 100% convinced of much about 9/11. But, there are many aspects of 9/11 of which I am fairly confident than other aspects.

The following are my current updated chances for various theories and stories about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 90%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 2%

5) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 2%

6) There were extra explosives/incendiaries planted at the WTC twin towers that helped bring down the towers: 95% (LARGE INCREASE: new understanding of theories of demolition)

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition: 99% (NEW)

8) Explosives were planted at the Pentagon to mimic a plane crash: 90% (LARGE INCREASE: pre-planted explosives explain what happened better)

9) no plane crashed in Shanksville: 95% (NEW)

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 60% (NEW)

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 95% (NEW)

12) at least some videos of the second hit were faked: 95% (NEW)

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 5% (LARGE DECREASE: I don't think there were planes for NORAD to go after)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes hitting buildings and were a massive deception perpetrated by the government: 75% (LARGE INCREASE: this theory explains what happened better)

16) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%

17) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the media: 99%

My 9/11 Odds-- Jan 2005

Chances: LIHOP, HIHOP, MIHOP
Nothing in this world is for certain, of course, and thus I cannot say I am 100% convinced of anything about 9/11. But, there are many aspects of 9/11 of which I am fairly confident than other aspects. The following are my current chances for various theories and stories about 9/11:

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 99%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 50%

4) All 19 of the hijackers named by the FBI were really on the four hijacked flights: 1%

5) The hijackings occurred according to the official story-- by force with small knives, boxcutters, mace, pepper spray and fake bombs: 10%

6) The hijackers actually piloted the planes into the WTC and Pentagon: 10%

7) There was some sort of plane switch, where the original hijacked planes landed and other drone planes took over the flight path and then crashed into the WTC and Pentagon: 50%

8) The hijackings took place as part of a pre-arranged drill: 50%

9) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 25%

10) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 50%

11) There were extra explosives planted at the WTC that helped bring down the towers: 50%

12) The Pentagon security camera video was altered: 99%

13) Extra explosives were planted at the Pentagon: 50%

14) Dick Cheney was intimately involved in the 9/11 attacks: 50%

15) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%

16) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 90%

17) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes and were a massive deception perpetrated by the government: 1%

18) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%

19) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the airlines: 100%

20) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the media: 90%

Thus, in terms of overall scenarios, this gives an extremely high likelihood for Let It Happen on Purpose (LIHOP) and for Help It Happen on Purpose (HIHOP). The odds for Make It Happen On Purpose (MIHOP) are roughly 50-50.

BUT-- the problem I have had with LIHOP for some time now is the unpredictability. It's hard to see that the government would not have any control over what buildings were hit-- it's simply too risky. Thus, in a sense, you have an all-or-none option-- where either the attacks are MIHOP all the way OR the official story where the government really tried to do everythng it could to prevent the attacks but was incompetent in stopping the attacks. But since there clearly was significant foreknowledge, this swings the pendulum to MIHOP.

This is why, despite the seeming improbability of it and the dark conspiracy theory nature of it, I have leaned towards MIHOP.