My 9/11 Odds-- April 2006

To repeat: nothing in this world is for certain, of course, and thus I cannot say I am 100% convinced of much about 9/11. But, there are many aspects of 9/11 of which I am fairly confident than other aspects.

The following are my current updated chances for various theories and stories about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 90%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 2%

5) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 2%

6) There were extra explosives/incendiaries planted at the WTC twin towers that helped bring down the towers: 95% (LARGE INCREASE: new understanding of theories of demolition)

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition: 99% (NEW)

8) Explosives were planted at the Pentagon to mimic a plane crash: 90% (LARGE INCREASE: pre-planted explosives explain what happened better)

9) no plane crashed in Shanksville: 95% (NEW)

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 60% (NEW)

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 95% (NEW)

12) at least some videos of the second hit were faked: 95% (NEW)

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 5% (LARGE DECREASE: I don't think there were planes for NORAD to go after)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes hitting buildings and were a massive deception perpetrated by the government: 75% (LARGE INCREASE: this theory explains what happened better)

16) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%

17) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the media: 99%