Odds for October 2006
Very little in this world is for certain, of course, and it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened evolve, as I take in new evidence.
The following are my current updated chances for various explanations about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds or changed the wording for a particular occurrance):
1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%
2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%
3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 99%
4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 1%
5) A conventional Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 1%
6) Pre-planted explosives and outside means such as exotic weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 99% (added in "exotic weaponry")
7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 99%
8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 50% (this item is new; removed bombs at Pentagon)
9) no conventional plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%
10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 98%
11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 98%
12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 99%
13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 50% (down slightly)
14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 50% (upgraded significantly; I'm not sure about this one)
15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes and were perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 98% (added in "conventional" before "planes" because I think this is more appropriate)
16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery; this was perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 30%
17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100% (removed "large" from before "cover-up"; added in "disinfo campaign")
18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99% (removed "large" from before "cover-up")
The following are my current updated chances for various explanations about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds or changed the wording for a particular occurrance):
1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%
2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%
3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 99%
4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 1%
5) A conventional Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 1%
6) Pre-planted explosives and outside means such as exotic weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 99% (added in "exotic weaponry")
7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 99%
8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 50% (this item is new; removed bombs at Pentagon)
9) no conventional plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%
10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 98%
11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 98%
12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 99%
13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 50% (down slightly)
14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 50% (upgraded significantly; I'm not sure about this one)
15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes and were perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 98% (added in "conventional" before "planes" because I think this is more appropriate)
16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery; this was perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 30%
17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100% (removed "large" from before "cover-up"; added in "disinfo campaign")
18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99% (removed "large" from before "cover-up")
posted by spooked at 7:51 PM
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