9/11 Odds, August 2006

Very little in this world is for certain, of course, and it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. But there are parts of 9/11 of which I am more confident about what I think happened than other aspects.

The following are my current updated chances for various theories and stories about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 90%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 2%

5) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 2%

6) There were pre-planted explosives at the WTC twin towers that caused the total collapses of the buildings: 99%

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition: 99%

8) Explosives were planted at the Pentagon to mimic a plane crash: 90%

9) no plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 95%

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 95%

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 100%

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 5% (I don't think there were real hijacked planes for NORAD to go after)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes hitting buildings and were a massive deception perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 90%

16) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%

17) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99%