December 2017

It is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11, at least based on the evidence publicly available. However, it is clear that the official story is very wrong. 

The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in terms of probability ("Beyond any reasonable doubt" = odds of 10,000 to 1 or higher).

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: "100 to 1"

4) Flight AA77 did not crash into the Pentagon: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

5) No aircraft hit the Pentagon at all: 10 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives had a role in the destruction of the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

7) Miniature nuclear weapons were involved in the destruction of the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "100 to 1"

8) No plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

9) UA93 did not crash in Shanksville: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

10) Flight AA 11 did not hit WTC1: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

11) Flight UA 175 did not hit WTC2: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

12) At least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: "100 to 1"

15) The four 9/11 "crashes" did not involve any conventional planes (though real plane parts were used to mimic crashes, and that planes were used indirectly as decoys): "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

16) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

17) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

18) (NEW) 9/11 involved some strange alternate reality, and/or supernatural force: "possible"

April 2014 Odds

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved over the years. The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in terms of probability (I define "Beyond any reasonable doubt" as odds of 10,000 to 1 or higher):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

5) No aircraft hit the Pentagon at all: 10 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives destroyed the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

7) Nuclear weapons were involved in the destruction of the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

9) UA93 did not crash in Shanksville: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: even (since lack of real hijacked planes would have been as much of a factor)

15) The four 9/11 "crashes" did not involve any conventional planes (includes real plane parts used to mimic crashes, and that planes were used indirectly as decoys): "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

16) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

17) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

February 2008 Odds

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved, as I take in new evidence and new ideas and analyze new evidence. The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in terms of probability (I define "Beyond any reasonable doubt" as odds of 10,000 to 1 or higher):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 1,000 to 1

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

5) No aircraft hit the Pentagon at all: 10 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives destroyed the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

7) Nuclear weapons were involved in the destruction of the WTC (1, 2, 7) towers: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 1,000 to 1

9) UA93 did not crash in Shanksville: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 1,000 to 1

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: 1 to 1 (lack of real hijacked planes would have been more of a factor)

15) The four 9/11 "crashes" did not involve any conventional planes (planes were used indirectly as decoys): 10,000 to 1

16) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"

17) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: "Beyond any reasonable doubt"


Interestingly, I have clearly firmed up on many of these key points in the last 8 months-- going to "Beyond any reasonable doubt" in many places.

July 2007

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved, as I take in new evidence and new ideas and analyze new evidence. The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in betting terms (and yes, I would bet real money on these if it were possible):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 1,000 to 1

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 1,000 to 1

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 1,000 to 1

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: 1,000 to 1

5) No conventional plane hit the Pentagon: 100 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives including nuclear weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 1,000 to 1

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 1,000 to 1

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 100 to 1

9) UA93 did not crash in Shanksville: 1,000 to 1

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 500 to 1

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 1,000 to 1

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 10,000 to 1

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: 50:50 (lack of real hijacked planes may have been more of a factor)

15) The direct 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes: 100 to 1 (planes were probably used indirectly)

16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery: 100 to 1

17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 1,000 to 1

18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 1,000 to 1


Interestingly, I have clearly firmed up on many of these key points in the last 8 months-- going from 100 to 1 to 1,000 to 1 in many places.

November 2006

9/11 ODDS

Very little in this world is certain, and therefore it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, contrary to what some people seem to think, my ideas for what happened on 9/11 have evolved, as I take in new evidence and/or analyze new evidence.

The following are how I rate various aspects of 9/11, in betting terms (and yes, I would bet real money on these if it were possible):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 1,000 to 1

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 100 to 1

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 100 to 1

4) Flight 77 did not crash into the Pentagon: 100 to 1

5) No conventional plane hit the Pentagon: 50 to 1

6) Pre-planted explosives and outside means such as exotic weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 100 to 1

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 100 to 1

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 50 to 1

9) no conventional plane crashed in Shanksville: 100 to 1

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 100 to 1

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2 (assuming fllight 175 was a Boeing 767): 1,000 to 1

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 1,000 to 1

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 10 to 1

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disabled by wargames being run on 9/11: 1 to 1 (confusing since it's not clear what kind of planes there were that could have been intercepted)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes: 10 to 1

16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery: 1 to 1

17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100 to 1

18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 100 to 1

Odds for October 2006

Very little in this world is for certain, of course, and it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. Moreover, my ideas for what happened evolve, as I take in new evidence.

The following are my current updated chances for various explanations about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds or changed the wording for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 99%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 1%

5) A conventional Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 1%

6) Pre-planted explosives and outside means such as exotic weaponry caused the total collapses of the WTC twin towers: 99% (added in "exotic weaponry")

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition of some form: 99%

8) no plane crashed at all in Shanksville and the crash site was a complete hoax: 50% (this item is new; removed bombs at Pentagon)

9) no conventional plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 98%

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 98%

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 99%

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 50% (down slightly)

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 50% (upgraded significantly; I'm not sure about this one)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any conventional planes and were perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 98% (added in "conventional" before "planes" because I think this is more appropriate)

16) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes at all and were a hoax facilitated by pre-planted explosives, planted plane parts and video fakery; this was perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 30%

17) There is a cover-up/disinfo campaign about 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100% (removed "large" from before "cover-up"; added in "disinfo campaign")

18) There is a cover-up about 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99% (removed "large" from before "cover-up")

9/11 Odds, August 2006

Very little in this world is for certain, of course, and it is difficult to be absolutely certain of many aspects of 9/11. But there are parts of 9/11 of which I am more confident about what I think happened than other aspects.

The following are my current updated chances for various theories and stories about 9/11 (I note where I have significantly changed my odds for a particular occurrance):

1) Some officials in the US government had specific foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks: 100%

2) Some officials in the US government aided the hijackers at various points before 9/11: 99%

3) Some officials in the US government had a direct hand in carrying out the attacks: 90%

4) Flight 77 really crashed into the Pentagon: 2%

5) A Boeing 757 hit the Pentagon: 2%

6) There were pre-planted explosives at the WTC twin towers that caused the total collapses of the buildings: 99%

7) WTC7 was brought down by controlled demolition: 99%

8) Explosives were planted at the Pentagon to mimic a plane crash: 90%

9) no plane crashed in Shanksville: 95%

10) flight 11 did not hit WTC1: 95%

11) flight 175 did not hit WTC2: 95%

12) at least some videos and photos of the second hit were faked: 100%

13) Bush had some specific foreknowledge about what was going to happen on 9/11: 75%

14) The air defense (NORAD) response to the hijackings was distracted and/or disbaled by wargames being run on 9/11: 5% (I don't think there were real hijacked planes for NORAD to go after)

15) The 9/11 attacks did not involve any planes hitting buildings and were a massive deception perpetrated by a covert group within the government: 90%

16) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained by the government: 100%

17) There is a large cover-up about the 9/11 being maintained at high levels by the media: 99%